Past the Tipping Point

Schneider, a Stanford University climatologist, said the world faces a huge risk.

"I think meters of sea-level rise are virtually inevitable, unless we can stop this. But I'm not such an optimist," he told journalists on a fellowship program with the Honolulu-based East-West Center. "The main message is we're in risk management. We do not know the science well enough to know exactly what the temperature is at when a tipping point will occur."

Associated Press

Another disturbing milestone was passed on November 6. The NSIDC graph below shows that although extent of the Arctic sea ice this past summer was greater than that of 2007, it is now less - a record low for its date. Ice covered the Arctic Ocean in a smaller area on November 6, 2009 than in any other year on November 6 since observations began in 1979.

West Coast Climate Equity

The need to cut carbon emissions is even more urgent than the government’s Transition Plan acknowledges. NASA scientist James Hansen, one of the world’s leading climate scientists, now argues that we have already passed the climate tipping point at our current level of 387ppm, when the safe level of carbon in the atmosphere is at most 350ppm.

Resurgence

What would the world look like when it is four degrees warmer? It will likely mean one to two billion people will not have access to adequate fresh water because of the major shift in rainfall patterns, said Nigel Arnell, director of the Walker Institute for Climate Systems Research at the University of Reading in Britain.

Up to 15 percent of existing or potential cropland - and 40 percent in Africa - will become too dry and too hot for food production. While there might be some gains in northern areas like Canada and Russia, generally the soils there are not suitable for crops, he said.

By Stephen Leahy, IPS

This mega-shift in ocean productivity from south to north over the next three to four decades will leave those most reliant on fish for both food and income high and dry.

"The shift is already happening, we've been measuring it for the last 20 years," said Daniel Pauly, a renowned fisheries expert at the University of British Columbia (UBC).

Pauly told IPS that the recently documented rises in ocean acidity and anoxia levels in many parts of the ocean were not part of this study but will be part of future reports. Nor were the observed changes in plankton production.

"This estimate is conservative," he explained. "We will likely project significant additional reductions in fish catch."

By Stephen Leahy, IPS